We elaborate the theory of the stable Bernstein center of a $p$-adic group $G$, and apply it to state a general conjecture on test functions for Shimura varieties due to the author and R. Kottwitz. This conjecture provides a framework by which one might pursue the Langlands-Kottwitz method in a very general situation: not necessarily PEL Shimura varieties with arbitrary level structure at $p$. We give a concrete reinterpretation of the test function conjecture in the context of parahoric level structure. We also use the stable Bernstein center to formulate some of the transfer conjectures (the fundamental lemmas) that would be needed if one attempts to use the test function conjecture to express the local Hasse-Weil zeta function of a Shimura variety in terms of automorphic $L$-functions.
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