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تسجيل مستخدم جديدQuantifying the Unknown
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The issue of how epistemic uncertainties affect the outcome of Monte Carlo simulation is discussed by means of a concrete use case: the simulation of the longitudinal energy deposition profile of low energy protons. A variety of electromagnetic and hadronic physics models is investigated, and their effects are analyzed. Possible systematic effects are highlighted. The results identify requirements for experimental measurements capable of reducing epistemic uncertainties in the simulation.
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The assessment of the reliability of Monte Carlo simulations is discussed, with emphasis on uncertainty quantification and the related impact on experimental results. Methods and techniques to account for epistemic uncertainties, i.e. for intrinsic k
nowledge gaps in physics modeling, are discussed with the support of applications to concrete experimental scenarios. Ongoing projects regarding the investigation of epistemic uncertainties in the Geant4 simulation toolkit are reported.
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