We report progress in the development of a model-based hybrid probabilistic approach to an on-board IVHM for solid rocket boosters (SRBs) that can accommodate the abrupt changes of the model parameters in various nonlinear dynamical off-nominal regimes. The work is related to the ORION mission program. Specifically, a case breach fault for SRBs is considered that takes into account burning a hole through the rocket case, as well as ablation of the nozzle throat under the action of hot gas flow. A high-fidelity model (HFM) of the fault is developed in FLUENT in cylindrical symmetry. The results of the FLUENT simulations are shown to be in good agreement with quasi-stationary approximation and analytical solution of a system of one-dimensional partial differential equations (PDEs) for the gas flow in the combustion chamber and in the hole through the rocket case.
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