We investigate the ability of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) to detect a stochastic gravitational-wave background (GWB) produced by cosmic strings, and to subsequently estimate the string tension $Gmu$ in the presence of instrument noi
se, an astrophysical background from compact binaries, and the galactic foreground from white dwarf binaries. Fisher Information and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods provide estimates of the LISA noise and the parameters for the different signal sources. We demonstrate the ability of LISA to simultaneously estimate the galactic foreground, as well as the astrophysical and cosmic string produced backgrounds. Considering the expected astrophysical background and a galactic foreground, a cosmic string tension in the $G mu approx 10^{-16}$ to $Gmu approx 10^{-15}$ range or bigger could be measured by LISA, with the galactic foreground affecting this limit more than the astrophysical background. The parameter estimation methods presented here can be applied to other cosmological backgrounds in the LISA observation band.
With the goal of attempting to observe a stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) with LISA, the spectral separability of the cosmological and astrophysical backgrounds is important to estimate. We attempt to determine the level with which a c
osmological background can be observed given the predicted astrophysical background level. We predict detectable limits for the future LISA measurement of the SGWB. Adaptive Markov chain Monte-Carlo methods are used to produce estimates with the simulated data from the LISA Data challenge (LDC). We also calculate the Cramer-Rao lower bound on the variance of the SGWB parameter uncertainties based on the inverse Fisher Information using the Whittle Likelihood. The estimation of the parameters is done with the 3 LISA channels $A$, $E$, and $T$. We simultaneously estimate the noise using a LISA noise model. Assuming the expected astrophysical background, a cosmological background energy density of around $Omega_{GW,Cosmo} approx 1 times 10^{-12}$ to $1 times 10^{-13}$ can be detected by LISA.
Since the very first detection of gravitational waves from the coalescence of two black holes in 2015, Bayesian statistical methods have been routinely applied by LIGO and Virgo to extract the signal out of noisy interferometric measurements, obtain
point estimates of the physical parameters responsible for producing the signal, and rigorously quantify their uncertainties. Different computational techniques have been devised depending on the source of the gravitational radiation and the gravitational waveform model used. Prominent sources of gravitational waves are binary black hole or neutron star mergers, the only objects that have been observed by detectors to date. But also gravitational waves from core collapse supernovae, rapidly rotating neutron stars, and the stochastic gravitational wave background are in the sensitivity band of the ground-based interferometers and expected to be observable in future observation runs. As nonlinearities of the complex waveforms and the high-dimensional parameter spaces preclude analytic evaluation of the posterior distribution, posterior inference for all these sources relies on computer-intensive simulation techniques such as Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. A review of state-of-the-art Bayesian statistical parameter estimation methods will be given for researchers in this cross-disciplinary area of gravitational wave data analysis.
We anticipate noise from the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will exhibit nonstationarities throughout the duration of its mission due to factors such as antenna repointing, cyclostationarities from spacecraft motion, and glitches as highli
ghted by LISA Pathfinder. In this paper, we use a surrogate data approach to test the stationarity of a time series which does not rely on the Gaussianity assumption. The main goal is to identify noise nonstationarities in the future LISA mission. This will be necessary for determining how often the LISA noise power spectral density (PSD) will need to be updated for parameter estimation routines. We conduct a thorough simulation study illustrating the power/size of vario
This article proposes a Bayesian approach to estimating the spectral density of a stationary time series using a prior based on a mixture of P-spline distributions. Our proposal is motivated by the B-spline Dirichlet process prior of Edwards et al. (
2019) in combination with Whittles likelihood and aims at reducing the high computational complexity of its posterior computations. The strength of the B-spline Dirichlet process prior over the Bernstein-Dirichlet process prior of Choudhuri et al. (2004) lies in its ability to estimate spectral densities with sharp peaks and abrupt changes due to the flexibility of B-splines with variable number and location of knots. Here, we suggest to use P-splines of Eilers and Marx (1996) that combine a B-spline basis with a discrete penalty on the basis coefficients. In addition to equidistant knots, a novel strategy for a more expedient placement of knots is proposed that makes use of the information provided by the periodogram about the steepness of the spectral power distribution. We demonstrate in a simulation study and two real case studies that this approach retains the flexibility of the B-splines, achieves similar ability to accurately estimate peaks due to the new data-driven knot allocation scheme but significantly reduces the computational costs.
While there is an increasing amount of literature about Bayesian time series analysis, only a few Bayesian nonparametric approaches to multivariate time series exist. Most methods rely on Whittles Likelihood, involving the second order structure of a
stationary time series by means of its spectral density matrix. This is often modeled in terms of the Cholesky decomposition to ensure positive definiteness. However, asymptotic properties such as posterior consistency or posterior contraction rates are not known. A different idea is to model the spectral density matrix by means of random measures. This is in line with existing approaches for the univariate case, where the normalized spectral density is modeled similar to a probability density, e.g. with a Dirichlet process mixture of Beta densities. In this work, we present a related approach for multivariate time series, with matrix-valued mixture weights induced by a Hermitian positive definite Gamma process. The proposed procedure is shown to perform well for both simulated and real data. Posterior consistency and contraction rates are also established.
We present a new Bayesian nonparametric approach to estimating the spectral density of a stationary time series. A nonparametric prior based on a mixture of B-spline distributions is specified and can be regarded as a generalization of the Bernstein
polynomial prior of Petrone (1999a,b) and Choudhuri et al. (2004). Whittles likelihood approximation is used to obtain the pseudo-posterior distribution. This method allows for a data-driven choice of the number of mixture components and the location of knots. Posterior samples are obtained using a Metropolis-within-Gibbs Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, and mixing is improved using parallel tempering. We conduct a simulation study to demonstrate that for complicated spectral densities, the B-spline prior provides more accurate Monte Carlo estimates in terms of $L_1$-error and uniform coverage probabilities than the Bernstein polynomial prior. We apply the algorithm to annual mean sunspot data to estimate the solar cycle. Finally, we demonstrate the algorithms ability to estimate a spectral density with sharp features, using real gravitational wave detector data from LIGOs sixth science run, recoloured to match the Advanced LIGO target sensitivity.
The standard noise model in gravitational wave (GW) data analysis assumes detector noise is stationary and Gaussian distributed, with a known power spectral density (PSD) that is usually estimated using clean off-source data. Real GW data often depar
t from these assumptions, and misspecified parametric models of the PSD could result in misleading inferences. We propose a Bayesian semiparametric approach to improve this. We use a nonparametric Bernstein polynomial prior on the PSD, with weights attained via a Dirichlet process distribution, and update this using the Whittle likelihood. Posterior samples are obtained using a blocked Metropolis-within-Gibbs sampler. We simultaneously estimate the reconstruction parameters of a rotating core collapse supernova GW burst that has been embedded in simulated Advanced LIGO noise. We also discuss an approach to deal with non-stationary data by breaking longer data streams into smaller and locally stationary components.
Using the latest numerical simulations of rotating stellar core collapse, we present a Bayesian framework to extract the physical information encoded in noisy gravitational wave signals. We fit Bayesian principal component regression models with know
n and unknown signal arrival times to reconstruct gravitational wave signals, and subsequently fit known astrophysical parameters on the posterior means of the principal component coefficients using a linear model. We predict the ratio of rotational kinetic energy to gravitational energy of the inner core at bounce by sampling from the posterior predictive distribution, and find that these predictions are generally very close to the true parameter values, with $90%$ credible intervals $sim 0.04$ and $sim 0.06$ wide for the known and unknown arrival time models respectively. Two supervised machine learning methods are implemented to classify precollapse differential rotation, and we find that these methods discriminate rapidly rotating progenitors particularly well. We also introduce a constrained optimization approach to model selection to find an optimal number of principal components in the signal reconstruction step. Using this approach, we select 14 principal components as the most parsimonious model.
Extreme mass ratio inspirals (EMRIs) are thought to be one of the most exciting gravitational wave sources to be detected with LISA. Due to their complicated nature and weak amplitudes the detection and parameter estimation of such sources is a chall
enging task. In this paper we present a statistical methodology based on Bayesian inference in which the estimation of parameters is carried out by advanced Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms such as parallel tempering MCMC. We analysed high and medium mass EMRI systems that fall well inside the low frequency range of LISA. In the context of the Mock LISA Data Challenges, our investigation and results are also the first instance in which a fully Markovian algorithm is applied for EMRI searches. Results show that our algorithm worked well in recovering EMRI signals from different (simulated) LISA data sets having single and multiple EMRI sources and holds great promise for posterior computation under more realistic conditions. The search and estimation methods presented in this paper are general in their nature, and can be applied in any other scenario such as AdLIGO, AdVIRGO and Einstein Telescope with their respective response functions.
